Statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill in Pyongyang, North Korea. Credit: J.A. de Roo.

The UN may call for new sanctions, but unless the Chinese cut off airspace and ports, close the border, stop the North Koreans from using the Chinese financial system… the sanctions aren’t going to work.

Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says North Korea's tests are signaling a "sales pitch" to other rogue states for nuclear missiles.
↩︎ Quartz
Sep 12, 2016

The Futility of Sanctions

The U.S.'s immediate response to North Korea's fifth and largest successful nuclear test has been its usual one: threatening stricter sanctions, but a 2014 study published by George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs found that sanctions have little effect on the growth of North Korea's nuclear program, and in some cases have helped it grow.

Additionally, a UN panel found in February that many nations that sign on to UN sanctions of North Korea fail to follow through with them, most notably China, where a recent ABC News investigation found that security along the 870-mile-long border between the two countries is "minimal" and allows hundreds of trucks to pass through to North Korea unsearched.

Sep 13, 2016

The United States cannot rely on China for North Korea. China is closer to North Korea than the United States.

Despite joining a Security Council resolution condemning North Korea's nuclear tests, China's unlikely to do anything to punish its entirely dependent neighbor.
↩︎ The New York Times
Sep 13, 2016

Steps Taken Toward a Nuclear North Korea

The South Korean Ministry of National Defense issued a statement saying that it is preparing "for the worst case scenario" after North Korea tested its most powerful nuclear weapon yet last week—its fifth successful nuclear test, and second this year—and fired three ballistic missiles that flew over 600 miles and crashed into the Sea of Japan today as world leaders met at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Vientiane, Laos.

The missile tests swiftly earned the unanimous condemnation of the UN Security Council, including China. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the missiles tested were likely ER Scud, which have the ability to reach a US naval base in Japan. It has long been a goal of the North Korean nuclear program to achieve "survivable nuclear capability," or the ability to quickly launch missiles from submarines and launchpads to thwart any pre-emptive attack.

The language of North Korea's statement regarding the tests suggests it is approaching that capability, saying that it had "standardized" nuclear warheads. As of last month, according to the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan organization started by former defense and military officials in the '70s, North Korea's nuclear capabilities still lag far behind those of other nuclear states, with just eight total warheads, compared with the second-lowest amount, Israel's 80.

Sep 12, 2016
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