Christmas tree. Credit: Stephen Butler.

While some see this new prediction tech as like a new pipe tech that could improve all pipes, no matter their size, it is actually more like a tech only useful on very large pipes. Just as it would be a waste to force a pipe tech only useful for big pipes onto all pipes, it can be a waste to push advanced prediction tech onto typical prediction tasks.

Machine learning is all the rage, but most firms really just want the cachet of leading-edge tech; they could get their predictions with a simple regression and good clean data.
↩︎ Overcoming Bias
Dec 6, 2016

Prediction is cheap, unlike ethics

The semiconductor lowered the cost of arithmetic, which the Harvard Business Review cites to predict that the economics of machine learning mean we’ll start using predictions on everything: “The first effect of machine intelligence will be to lower the cost of goods and services that rely on prediction.” The next step will be that we’ll start using prediction as an input even in industries where it has typically had little reason to be applied.

That shift is already underway as big tech companies change their business models to incorporate AI at every level. Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, and Microsoft are all investing heavily; they’ve even worked together to establish best practices in AI ethics, a partnership from which Apple was notably marked absent.

Nov 29, 2016

Google Translate invented its own shortcut

Google announced that their translation team discovered something interesting: after they turned over translation to a machine learning-enabled AI, it figured out its own way of translating.

After being taught to translate between English and Korean, then between Japanese and English, the AI invented its own fourth reference language that may draw upon deep-learning insights into a shared structure between the three languages. “This “interlingua” seems to exist as a deeper level of representation that sees similarities between a sentence or word in all three languages,” says TechCrunch.

Full explanation of the phenomenon from the Google team here.

Nov 29, 2016

[The bot] lives under the assumption that nothing will be novel, as if out of faith. It fields sentences by comparing them with those it knows, understanding phrasings using algorithms somewhat like Markov chains. Then, it assembles a response according to poetic constraints, rules and templates, or selects the best one from a list.

As in poetry, limitations give rise to creativity.
↩︎ Real Life
Nov 29, 2016
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